Outbreak Spread Simulator

Simulate how an outbreak may grow or shrink over several transmission cycles based on starting cases, reproduction rate, and interventions.

Estimated number of infectious cases at the beginning.
Above 1 means growth, below 1 means decline.
Each cycle represents one round of spread.
Reduces the effective reproduction rate.
Optional rough estimate of how many cases are actually detected.
Switch between simple and expanded output.
How we calculate

We apply the reproduction rate to each transmission cycle. Interventions reduce the effective R, and optional case detection estimates how many infections might actually be observed.